Decarbonization Pathways and Impacts

Decarbonization Pathways | Economics of Emerging Technologies | Economics of Electrification | Equity and Distributional Impacts

Decarbonization Pathways

Publications and Presentations

• Bistline, et al. (2024). "Uses and Limits of National Decarbonization Scenarios to Inform Net-Zero Transitions." Joule (coauthored by EPRI's John Bistline, Anahi Molar-Cruz, and Steven Rose).
• Loughlin, D.H., et al. [including ESCA's John Bistline] (2024). Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study. Energy and Climate Change, Volume 5.
• Sinha, A. et al. [including ESCA's Aranya Venkatesh] (2024). Diverse decarbonization pathways under near cost-optimal futures. Nature Communications.
• Mignone, B. et al. [including ESCA's Steve Rose and Aranya Venkatesh] (2024). Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems. Nature Communications.
• Beiter, P., Mai, T., Mowers, M. et al. Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States. Nat Energy (2023).
• Zhu, et al. (2023) “Analyzing Air Quality Impacts of Economywide Deep Decarbonization: Challenges and Approaches.” The Magazine for Environmental Managers, August 2023.
• Bistline, J., et al. (2023). Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act. In Science (Vol. 380, Issue 6652, pp. 1324–1327). American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
• Browning, M, et al. (2023). “Net-zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study.” Energy and Climate Change, 4(2666–2787)
• Bistline, John, et al. “Modeling Nuclear Energy's Future Role in Decarbonized Energy Systems.” IScience, vol. 26, no. 2, Feb. 2023, p. 105952
• Rose, S.K., Popp, A., Fujimori, S. et al. Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system. Climatic Change 172, 3 (2022)
• Leblanc, F., Bibas, R., Mima, S. et al. The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment. Climatic Change 170, 21 (2022)
• Gagnon, Pieter J., et al. "Short-Run Marginal Emission Rates Omit Important Impacts of Electric-Sector Interventions." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119, no. 49, 28 Nov. 2022
• John Bistline, David Young (2022): “The Role of Natural Gas in Reaching Net-Zero Emissions in the Electric Sector” (Nature Communications)
• Bistline, J., N. Abhyankar, G. Blanford, L. Clarke, R. Fakhry, H. McJeon, J. Reilly, C. Roney, T. Wilson, M. Yuan, and A. Zhao (2022): “Actions for Reducing U.S. Emissions at Least 50% by 2030” (Science)
• John Bistline and Geoff Blanford (2021): “The role of the power sector in Net-Zero energy systems” (Energy and Climate Change)
• Ou, Y., Roney, C., Alsalam, J. et al.Deep mitigation of CO₂ and non-CO₂ greenhouse gases toward 1.5°C and 2°C futures. (Nature Communications)
• John Bistline (2021): "Variability in Deeply Decarbonized Electricity Systems" (Environmental Science & Technology)
• John Bistline, Chris Roney, David McCollum, and Geoff Blanford (2021): “Deep Decarbonization Impacts on Electric Load Shapes and Peak Demand” (Environmental Research Letters)
• John Bistline (2021): “Roadmaps to Net-Zero Emissions Systems: Emerging Insights and Modeling Challenges.” (Joule)
• John Bistline, Geoff Blanford, Trieu Mai (NREL), James Merrick (Geal Research) (2021): “Modeling variable renewable energy and storage in the power sector” (Energy Policy)
• Evan J. Arbuckle, Matthew Binsted, Evan G.R. Davies, Diego V. Chiappori, Candelaria Bergero, Muhammad-Shahid Siddiqui, Christopher Roney, Haewon C. McJeon, Yuyu Zhou, Nick Macaluso (2021) Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns? (Energy Policy)
• John Bistline, Wesley Cole (NREL), Giovanni Damato, Joseph DeCarolis (NC State University), Will Frazier (NREL), Vikram Linga (EIA), Cara Marcy (EPA), Chris Namovicz (EIA), Kara Podkaminer (DOE), Ryan Sims5, Manussawee Sukunta (EIA) and David Young (2020): "Energy storage in long-term system models: a review of considerations, best practices, and research needs" (Progress in Energy)
• Huntington, A. Bhargava, D. Daniels, J. Weyant, John Bistline, et al. Key findings from the core North American scenarios in the EMF34 intermodel comparison (Energy Policy)
• John Bistline, Maxwell Brown (NREL), Sauleh Siddiqui (American University), Kathleen Vaillancourt (Esmia Consultants) (2020): "Electric Sector Impacts of Renewable Policy Coordination: A Multi-Model Study of the North American Energy System" (Energy Policy)
• John Bistline and Geoff Blanford (2020): "Value of Technology in the U.S. Electric Power Sector: Impacts of Full Portfolios and Technological Change on the Costs of Meeting Decarbonization Goals" (Energy Economics)
• John Bistline and David Young (2020): "Emissions Impacts of Future Battery Storage Deployment on Regional Power Systems" (Applied Energy)
• John Bistline and David Young (2019): "Economic drivers of wind and solar penetration in the US" (Environmental Research Letters)
• John Bistline, Elke Hodson (DOE), Charles Rossmann (Southern Company), Jared Creason (EPA), Brian Murray (Duke University), Alexander Barron (Smith College) (2018): "Electric Sector Policy, Technological Change, and U.S. Emissions Reductions Goals: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Project" (Energy Economics)
• Trieu Mai (NREL), John Bistline, Yinong Sun (NREL), Wesley Cole (NREL), Cara Marcy (EIA), Chris Namovicz (EIA), David Young (2018): "The role of input assumptions and model structures in projections of variable renewable energy: A multi-model perspective of the U.S. electricity system" (Energy Economics)
• Geoff Blanford, James Merrick, John Bistline, and David Young (2018): "Simulating Annual Variation in Load, Wind, and Solar by Representative Hour Selection" (The Energy Journal)

EPRI Reports

• John Bistline and Geoff Blanford. (2024). Powering Data Centers: U.S. Energy System and Emissions Impacts of Growing Loads. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. 3002031198
• Tom Wilson, Poorvi Patel, and Jordan Aljbour. (2024). Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 3002028905.
• Steve Rose and Anahi Molar-Cruz, 2023. Differences in Regional Decarbonization Opportunities, Uncertainties, and Risks, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002028181
• Silas Swanson, 2023. Key Drivers of the Energy Transition, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002028515
• John Bistline, 2023. Impacts of Inflationary Drivers and Updated Policies on U.S. Decarbonization and Technology Transitions, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002026229
• Geoff Blanford, 2022. LCRI Net-Zero 2050: U.S. Economy-Wide Deep Decarbonization Scenario Analysis. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002024882.
• John Bistline, 2021. Strategies and Actions for Achieving a 50% Reduction in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2030, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002023165
• Geoff Blanford and John Bistline, 2021. Powering Decarbonization: Strategies for Net-Zero CO2 Emissions. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002020700
• EPRI, 2021. Economic, System, and Environmental Implications of Renewables in the Western U.S. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002019986
• John Bistline, 2021. Analysis of Foresight in Long-Term Energy System Models. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002021161
• David Young, 2020. National Implications of Utility CO2 Targets: 2020 Update. EPRI Palo Alto, CA. # 3002019004
• John Taber, 2020. Insights from Natural Gas Fuel Price Scenarios: A scenario-based analysis of the US electric sector through 2050. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA.
• EPRI, 2019. Cost-Effectively Achieving Carbon Goals in Minnesota: Renewable Standards vs. Technology-Neutral Policies — A scenario-based analysis of electric-sector impacts through 2050, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002015420

Economics of Emerging Technologies

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To learn more about ESCA's research on emerging technologies, please download the Research Summary on Energy Storage, Research Summary on Nuclear Generation, Research Summary on Renewable Generation

Publications and Presentations

• James H. Merrick, John E.T. Bistline, Geoffrey J. Blanford. (2024). On representation of energy storage in electricity planning models. Energy Economics, Volume 136.
• Levin,T., Bistline, J., et al. (2023). “Energy storage solutions to decarbonize electricity through enhanced capacity expansion modelling.” (Nature Energy)
• Bistline, J., R. Bedilion, N. S. Goteti, and N. Kern (2022): “Implications of Variations in Renewable Cost Projections for Electric Sector Decarbonization in the United States” (iScience)
• John Bistline, Geoff Blanford (2021): “Impact of Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies on Deep Decarbonization of the Electric Power Sector" (Nature Communications)
• John Bistline et al, (2020): “Energy storage in long-term system models” (Progress in Energy).
• Bistline, J., James, R., Sowder, A., (2019): “Technology, Policy, and Market Drivers of (and Barriers to) Advanced Nuclear Reactor Deployment in the United States After 2030” (Nuclear Technology)
• Mai, T. (NREL), Bistline, J., Sun, Y. (NREL), Cole, W. (NREL), Marcy, C. (EIA), Namovicz, C. (EIA), Young, D., (2018): The role of input assumptions and model structures in projections of variable renewable energy (Energy Economics)

EPRI Reports

• Geoff Blanford and Tom Wilson. (2024). Valuing Improvements in Electric Vehicle Efficiency. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 3002030215
• Aranya Venkatesh, Anahi Molar-Cruz, Pallavi Bobba, Geoffrey Blanford. (2024). U.S. Low-Carbon Ammonia: Costs and Resource Requirements. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 3002028977
• Anahi Molar-Cruz and Aranya Venkatesh, 2023. Feasibility Assessment of U.S. E-gas Exports to Japan. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002028027
• Adam Diamant and John Bistline, 2021. Incorporating Energy Storage Resources into Long-Term Capacity Planning Models: An Assessment of the Inclusion of Specific Features on Battery Deployment in the Southeastern United States. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002021969
• Adam Diamant and Miles Evans, 2021. Incorporating Energy Storage Resources into Long-Term Capacity Planning Models: Experiments to Evaluate Approaches for Representing Battery Degradation — Phase 2 Report, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002022942
• John Bistline, 2018. Exploring the Role of Advanced Nuclear in Future Energy Markets: Economic Drivers, Barriers, and Impacts in the United States, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002011803

Economics of Electrification

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Publications and Presentations

• Smillie, S. et al. [including ESCA's Aranya Venkatesh] (2024).Hybrid heat pumps avoid extreme marginal abatement costs of electrifying peak heating loads in cold regions. Environmental Research Letters.

EPRI Reports

• EPRI, 2022. Ohio Efficient Electrification Study: Task 1, Energy System Assessment—Executive Summary. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002023157
• EPRI, 2022. Ohio Efficient Electrification Study: Task 3, Transmission Impacts—Executive Summary. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002023158
• EPRI, 2022. Ohio Efficient Electrification Study: Task 4, Utility-Level Assessment and Implementation Plan--Executive Summary. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002023159
• Steve Rose and John Taber, 2022. Opportunities for Decarbonizing Minnesota’s Economy: Energy System Supply and Demand Assessment. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002019333
• EPRI, 2021. Canadian National Electrification Assessment: Electrification Opportunities for Canada's Energy Future. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002021160
• John Bistline and Francisco de la Chesnaye, 2020. Georgia-Alabama Efficient Electrification Energy System Assessment: Executive Summary, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002019860
• Eladio Knipping, John Bistline, and Geoff Blanford, 2020. Efficient Electrification in California: Assessment of Energy System and Air Quality Impacts, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002019494
• Nils Johnson and Francisco de la Chesnaye, 2020. Electrification Scenarios for North Carolina's Energy Future: Executive Summary, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002019327
• Delavane Diaz, Francisco de la Chesnaye, and Allen Dennis, 2020. Electrification Scenarios for New York's Energy Future, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002017940
• EPRI, 2019. The Total Value Test: A Framework for Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Efficient Electrification. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002017017
• EPRI, 2018. U.S. National Electrification Assessment, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. # 3002013582

Equity and Distributional Impacts

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Publications and Presentations

• Bistline, J., et al. (2024). Equity Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under Economy-Wide deep decarbonization policies. Energy and Climate Change, 5, 100118.
• Bistline, John. “Household Environmental Kuznets Curves: Evidence from Passenger Transport Emissions.” Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, vol. 12, no. 2, DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.12.2.jbis
• Bistline, J.E.T., Blanford, G., Grant, J. et al. Economy-wide evaluation of CO2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States. Nat Commun 13, 6693 (2022).

EPRI Reports

• John Bistline, 2022. Understanding Distributional Impacts of Decarbonization: Modeling Effects of Household Income on Transport Electrification. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA. #3002024043